UFC 231 – Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega – Betting Predictions

From a fan’s perspective, UFC 231 is a fantastic event. Concerning betting opportunities, I am feeling lukewarm. Nevertheless, here are my breakdowns of the fights that I’m looking to playwith. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu champion and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, has been working on his striking in the past several decades. Training under famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is now comfortable wherever the battle takes place.
With his newfound striking abilities, Burns scored emphatic knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Regrettably, opting to bang Dan Hooker proved to be disastrous and Burns was finished in his final struggle. I lost money thinking Burns would grapple — oh well!
Even though a good striker, Burns takes risks defensively and heaps on his own shots. Dan Hooker is the type of fighter that can capitalize on defensive lapses — but I am unsure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming out of a judo history, Aubin-Mercier is immensely strong from the clinch and hefty from top position. While he’s much more skilled on the toes than he was, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of someone that is a natural striker. He’s light on his toes, out and in with his movement and slightly undependable — but is true when he fires.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, I doubt he would like to go to the mat with Burns. Even the muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive to the protector of Gilbert Burns — which speaks volumes.
In his last battle, Aubin-Mercier appeared a step behind in the scrambles against Alexander Hernandez and I would anticipate a master of body manipulation like Gilbert Burns to dominate on the mat too (though I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting off his back to make a better assessment).
I think the striking exchanges will be competitive, but I give Burns a small edge. Stylistically, this looks tricky for Aubin-Mercier and that I can’t predict his strategy. Perhaps the Canadian will try and control his opponent against the weapon, but without shooting takedowns?
I do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and has the cardio. However, I will take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog like I believe he must be a small favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
At a middleweight showdown between two fighters with contrasting designs (and characters ), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A great athletic, Anders is volatile yet has good cardio. Fighting from the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my view, goes head searching a bit too much. In his final bout, Thiago Santos was well prepared for the primary weapon of Anders — which limited his offensive victory.

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