BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at the $25k prize, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a pretty safe win here with Roberts and that is precisely what I am searching for. I want the safer wins in cash and I will worry about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we could get away from him at the GPPs in his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It helps us triumph in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win . I think he’s excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally okay with this in my cash lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of the week and he’s the greatest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a set up fight for him to receive a knockout and I think this is most likely going to happen in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy will be one of my best plays of the week, but he is GPP just for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for cash games, so that is why I enjoy Roberts longer in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he is $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the very best lineup and in spite of higher ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that is too great for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is preferred to get the win. I also think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score above 90 points. That would provide him a fantastic chance at being on the optimal lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I enjoy the most and we have to own”underdogs” in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think that the obvious path to victory for Glover is to the ground and that’s what I expect his game must be. I like him to find a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he will be among my highest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand folks were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade too… However, I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups such as her. Generally, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at shield to attempt and keep this fight on the toes. All the threat is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the boxing of the two. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I’d guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That is not going to reduce it at $8.2k so I simply don’t see how she ends up on the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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